Super Macro Event Trader

On February 4, 1994, the Federal Reserve raised rates by just 25 basis points and helped trigger one of the most violent bond routs in modern history. The size of the move wasn't the story. The Fed's reaction function had changed.

This book teaches traders how to recognize those changes before the rate decision confirms them.

Three documented cases reveal how monetary-policy pivots actually unfold: the Fed's devastating 1994 tightening cycle, the ECB's abrupt exit from negative rates in 2022, and the ECB's return to tightening in 2026. Each is reconstructed from the statements, minutes, testimony, and press conferences available at the time, not from hindsight.

At the center is the long-hold trap: the longer rates remain unchanged, the more capital accumulates around the assumption that they will stay there and the more violent the repricing when a central bank's logic changes.

The book's Turn Desk framework provides a repeatable process for identifying that change, evaluating market positioning, and building a disciplined trade before confirmation arrives.

Volume Two of The Macro Event Trader series: the trade should be in the documents before it is in the history books. Includes comics throughout the book to make the understanding of this complex topic much easier!